With the new price drop in the ex-gantry cost of locally refined Premium Motor Spirit, also known as petrol, announced last week by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery, importers of the product may lose an average of N466.62m daily and N13.998bn monthly, The PUNCH reliably gathered on Sunday.
This was as fresh industry data revealed that the average landing cost of a litre of imported petrol is now N33.33 higher than the revised ex-depot price offered by the Dangote Petroleum Refinery. This sharp disparity is expected to tilt market dynamics in favour of the local producer, potentially sidelining fuel importers in the Nigerian market.
However, the new financial loss to be incurred is an 81 per cent reduction from an average of N2.5bn daily and N75bn monthly lost in March due to price fluctuations.
The development is linked to a decline in petrol imports by marketers and a narrowing price gap between imported and locally refined fuel.
Industry stakeholders note that this development could mark a pivotal shift in Nigeria’s petroleum supply chain, as the Dangote Refinery asserts its pricing influence and reshapes competition.
Recall that the refinery, confirming an exclusive report by our correspondent last Wednesday, announced its third price adjustment in six weeks, moving its ex-depot price downward by N30 to N835 per litre. This marked a 3.5 per cent decrease, and a N45 reduction from the N880 per litre sold by the facility penultimate Wednesday.
It disclosed that Nigerians will now buy at new prices from its partners nationwide, including MRS, AP (Ardova), Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde and Tecno Oil.
The statement read, “Dangote Petroleum Refinery is pleased to announce a reduction in the gantry price of Premium Motor Spirit, commonly known as petrol, from N865 to N835, effective from Wednesday, 16th April 2025. This marks the second price reduction within a week.
“Key partners, including MRS, AP (Ardova), Heyden, Optima Energy, Hyde and Tecno Oil, will offer petrol at N890 per litre, down from N920 in Lagos. In the South-West, the price will be N900 per litre, reduced from N930.
“In the North-West and North-Central, the price will be N910 per litre, lowered from N940. In the South-East, South-South, and North-East, the price will be N920 per litre, down from N950.”
Weighing in on the development, Petroleum products marketers hinted that they are on track to lose billions of naira as they may be forced to sell petrol far below their costs.
The National Publicity Secretary of the Independent Petroleum Marketers Association of Nigeria, Chinedu Ukadike, who lauded the adjustment in the gantry prices of Dangote Petrol, however, lamented that marketers who have old stocks have to sell at a loss.
“It is a good development for Nigerians; however, marketers with the old price stock will have to lose billions of naira. It is affecting marketers, but based on the naira-for-crude, the effect must be reflected in the pump price,” he said in an interview.
The PUNCH findings have now revealed that importing marketers, who are primarily members of the Depot and Petroleum Products Marketers Association of Nigeria, will likely lose an average of N466.62m daily and N13.998bn monthly.
According to the Major Energies Marketers Association of Nigeria, the landing cost of petrol as of Wednesday, April 16, was N868.33 per litre. This is N33.33 above the N835 ex-depot price of PMS at the Dangote refinery.
Recently, the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority said Nigeria’s daily PMS consumption was around 50 million litres per day.
Speaking to State House correspondents last week, the NMDPRA Authority Chief Executive, Farouk Ahmed, disclosed that petrol importation declined from 44.6 million litres per day in August 2024 to 14.7 million litres as of April 13, 2025.
This decline, he explained, was driven by the phased restart of the Port Harcourt Refining Company in November 2024 and rising output from modular refineries across the country.
Oil marketers attributed the drop in volume of imported PMS to limited foreign exchange access and price instability in both domestic and international markets.
Assuming the 14 million litres of PMS arrive in Nigeria at N868.33 per litre, this will amount to approximately N12.17bn. At the new price offered by the Dangote Refinery, the same volume would cost about N11.69bn, leaving a difference of N466.62 million.
Should dealers be forced by current market conditions to sell at N835 per litre to marketers and retail outlets, they stand to lose an estimated N466.62 million daily. This translates to about N13.998bn in monthly losses.
Fuel importers, who spoke with our correspondent after Dangote announced the price cut, said dealers might be compelled to sell below their cost prices as consumers would only buy from where petrol is cheaper.
The President of the Petroleum Products Retail Outlets Owners Association of Nigeria, Dr. Billy Gillis-Harry, said the arbitrary change of price is causing significant instability in the sector.
He noted, “There is no calculation that I know of in the books that would bring petrol prices back to N500, N600 or N700 at the pump. The fluctuating prices by players and refiners are probably due to the economic environment in which they are operating. For instance, there is a lower price for crude, which is the feedstock for every refinery.
“The concern we continue to have is that it is possible in this industry to just take prices up or down arbitrarily. It is a challenge to the system. There is no computation now that can tell us this is the production cost that was used to arrive at the new price, except just an arbitrary decision.
“But it’s an open market, and some businesses would want to take undue advantage because of size and deep pockets. One company should not hold everyone to ransom, and this is why we call on the government, the Federal Competition and Consumers Protection Commission, and the NMDPRA to weigh the values of this price fluctuation. There must be a consideration for all the value chains. Otherwise, it is possible to eat yourself.”
Already, the Crude Oil Refinery Owners Association of Nigeria has projected that importers of petroleum products in Nigeria may soon go out of business if they refuse to follow local refining trends.
The CORAN Publicity Secretary, Eche Idoko, stated that fuel importers have remained persistent in the business despite clear signs that local refining is now firmly established in Nigeria
Unfortunately, we are asking them to come so that we can re-strategise and change their business strategy so they can remain relevant when Nigeria becomes a refining hub, but they are not forthcoming.
“Well, as long as they decide to keep to that position, at some point, they will all go out of business. Because refining in Nigeria has come to stay,“ he stressed.
Meanwhile, the Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited has reduced its premium motor spirit price to N935 per litre from N950.
The new price has been implemented at retail stations in Central Area, Wuse Zone 4, and Kubwa. However, it remains N20 higher than the N910 per litre expected to be sold at MRS filling stations.